New Ipsos Reid Poll: Alberta Alliance at 9%

A bit of good news for Alberta Alliance supporters. Ipsos Reid released a new poll that shows the AAP at 9% in Alberta. The other parties were as follows: PCs (47%); Liberals (29%); NDP (10%); Greens (5%).

Marketwire has a good article on the poll:

CALGARY/AB--(Marketwire - June 23, 2007) - A new Ipsos Reid poll finds a substantial decline in support for the Ed Stelmach-led Progressive Conservatives. The Progressive Conservatives currently have the backing of 47% of Alberta's decided voters, down 12 points from 59% just two months ago (April). This returns the Progressive Conservatives to the same level of voter support they achieved in the 2004 Alberta provincial election. In fact, all four major parties have returned to exactly where they stood in the last election. Among decided voters, 29% say they would vote Liberal, 10% would vote New Democrat and 9% would vote for the Alberta Alliance Party. ...

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll fielded between June 12 and June 17, 2007 and is based on a randomly selected sample of 801 adult Albertans. Results based on a sample size of 801 are considered accurate to within ± 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Albertan population been polled. Data was statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Alberta population according to the 2001 Census.

Source (click for screencap):



In fact, this is the best news that the Alberta Alliance has had in months. They have registered at around 5% support in every poll I have come across since February of 2006.

At the same time, the margin of error for this poll is ± 3.5%, so what the poll is really saying is that there is a 95% chance that the AAP would have polled between 5.5% and 12.5% if an election had been held between June 12 and June 17, 2007. Since the two Alberta by-elections were held on June 12, 2007, and we know that the AAP polled 4% in Calgary Elbow, and 5% in Drumheller-Stettler, it is more likely that support for the Alberta Alliance is toward the lower end of the range.

In other words, this poll is likely meaningless. Without further data, the only reasonable conclusion to reach is that the Alberta Alliance is still mired at about 5%.

ETA: See this post at The Alberta Liberal Archive for a fairly complete compilation of Alberta provincial polling numbers for 2006 and 2007.

The Alberta Spectator disses the Alberta Alliance

Werner Patels has a post up that mentions the AAP:

Nothing has scared the provincial Tories so far: not the Alberta Liberals, not the Alberta Alliance or any other party out there. But with the Wildrose Party, it seems, things are different.

Unlike the Alberta Alliance, the Wildrose Party may be able to get its act together and actually become the next ruling dynasty in Alberta.

Poll results

I have a couple of polls to blog about. I'll start with the oldest.

Environics research have posted the results from their March, 2007 poll. The Alberta Alliance was the choice of 4% of the voters:

From the website of Environics:

The Alberta Alliance Party continues in last place, with the support of four percent of decided voters; this figure is essentially unchanged from December.

The other parties placed as follows: PC (64%); Liberals (21%); NDP (9%).

The previous results are based on a survey conducted by telephone between March 13 and April 3, 2007 among a probability sample of 2,030 adult residents of Canada (aged 18 or older). The sample, which was stratified by region and by community size, is estimated to be accurate within 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Assuming that 10% of the 2,030 poll respondents were Albertans, the margin of error would have been much higher than 2.2 percent for the Alberta results.

Has the Alberta Alliance "gone to ground"?

While cleaning up some old files, I came across a Paul Jackson column from April 1, 2007 that I haven't blogged about. In this column, Jackson talks about the impressive election performance of Mario Dumont's ADQ, and laments about the pitiful state of affairs in Alberta provincial politics:

Back to Alberta and our 36-year rule of the Progressive Conservatives.

Isn't it about time it's over?

Is it not time we got some fresh blood, and some new ideas at the Alberta Legislative Assembly?

Well, I don't think we are going to get any out of Premier Ed Stelmach and his team.

So what's the alternative?

Where is Alberta's Mario Dumont and ADQ?

It's certainly not Kevin Taft's zany Liberals -- every one of them gristle from ear-to-ear.

It's not Brian Mason's socialist New Democrats -- every one a bonehead.

What then, has happened to Hinman and the Alberta Alliance, which under former leader Randy Thorsteinson, hauled in 9% of the vote in the 2004 provincial election.

Where have they gone to ground. And why?

This is getting repetitive, so I won't comment further. All I can suggest to Jackson is that he take solace in the fact that about half of the Alberta Alliance have finally gotten the message, have given up on the AAP, and have moved on to The Wildrose Party.

Perhaps they will be Alberta's ADQ.

Source (click for screencap):

Paul Jackson says "feckless" Hinman to blame for by-election shellacking

Well faithful readers, much has happened in Alberta Alliance Land since my last post. I've got a lot of catching up to do. The following is on my list of things to do and cover:

• Craig Chandler's defection to the Progressive Conservatives. Mr. Chandler has recently announced that he will be seeking the nomination for the Tories in Calgary Egmont.
• Further discussion of the false statements being made by the Alberta Alliance regarding the size of Alberta's bureaucracy.
• The 2007 Alberta Alliance AGM, and what it means to the AAP.
• Summarize and comment on the disastrous results obtained by the Alberta Alliance during the June 12 Alberta by-elections.
• The 2006 finances of the AAP have now been made public. The river of red ink continues.
• A new right wing provincal party has been created to challenge the Alberta Alliance. The "Wildrose Party of Alberta" includes a number of former highly placed Alberta Alliance operatives and candidates.
• Some new polling numbers. Could the Alliance be on the rebound?
• Media coverage of the Alberta Alliance.

On this last point, I thought I'd start with Paul Jackson's June 19 Edmonton Sun column entitled "Tories lack vision". In the column, Jackson covers the by-election results from the perspective of the Alberta Liberals, and then says the following:

... the most telling point from the protest vote in Calgary Elbow - and to an extent in Drumheller-Stettler - is the once alternative right-wing vote is now dead.

In Calgary Elbow, even Green Party candidate George Read beat Alberta Alliance candidate Jane Greydanus. In Drumheller-Stettler, Alberta Alliance candidate Dave France came in fifth place. Astonishing. ...

... The Alliance, which in 2004 polled 9% of the vote across the province and seemed to be soaring, is now not even on life support.

For this I blame its leader, Paul Hinman, who is a decent, but feckless fellow, and who couldn't organize a trip to a cat house for a bunch of horny football players.

Instead, after a winning game, Paul would likely invite them to a church basement for soft drinks and cookies.

Personally, I'd choose the cat house, and, in my younger days, I actually visited a couple of these fine emporiums.

Bizarre.

I have never considered a politician's propensity to head for a whorehouse rather than a church to be an endearing factor in the minds of most voters. While I agree with most of Jackson's comments and criticisms of the AAP and Hinman to date, this column is over the top.

And if I consider it over the top, the Alberta Alliance communications staff must have been beside themselves, and must have quickly issued a strong public condemnation of this hit piece.

Right?

Well, there's nothing on the Alberta Alliance website about it. In fact, the website hasn't been updated in over a month. The results from the by-elections haven't even been posted.

I'm beginning to feel a bit sorry for Paul Hinman. It must be a real grind to continually be under attack when nobody in the party ever comes to your defense.

It creates the impression that the members, staff, and executive, have all but given up.

Source (click for screencap):