A bit of good news for Alberta Alliance supporters. Ipsos Reid released a new poll that shows the AAP at 9% in Alberta. The other parties were as follows: PCs (47%); Liberals (29%); NDP (10%); Greens (5%).
Marketwire has a good article on the poll:
CALGARY/AB--(Marketwire - June 23, 2007) - A new Ipsos Reid poll finds a substantial decline in support for the Ed Stelmach-led Progressive Conservatives. The Progressive Conservatives currently have the backing of 47% of Alberta's decided voters, down 12 points from 59% just two months ago (April). This returns the Progressive Conservatives to the same level of voter support they achieved in the 2004 Alberta provincial election. In fact, all four major parties have returned to exactly where they stood in the last election. Among decided voters, 29% say they would vote Liberal, 10% would vote New Democrat and 9% would vote for the Alberta Alliance Party. ...Source (click for screencap):
These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll fielded between June 12 and June 17, 2007 and is based on a randomly selected sample of 801 adult Albertans. Results based on a sample size of 801 are considered accurate to within ± 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Albertan population been polled. Data was statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Alberta population according to the 2001 Census.
In fact, this is the best news that the Alberta Alliance has had in months. They have registered at around 5% support in every poll I have come across since February of 2006.
At the same time, the margin of error for this poll is ± 3.5%, so what the poll is really saying is that there is a 95% chance that the AAP would have polled between 5.5% and 12.5% if an election had been held between June 12 and June 17, 2007. Since the two Alberta by-elections were held on June 12, 2007, and we know that the AAP polled 4% in Calgary Elbow, and 5% in Drumheller-Stettler, it is more likely that support for the Alberta Alliance is toward the lower end of the range.
In other words, this poll is likely meaningless. Without further data, the only reasonable conclusion to reach is that the Alberta Alliance is still mired at about 5%.
ETA: See this post at The Alberta Liberal Archive for a fairly complete compilation of Alberta provincial polling numbers for 2006 and 2007.
