Paul Hinman to cross floor?

The evidence of malaise and despair in the ranks of the Alberta Alliance continues to mount. I have learned that a poster on a UK discussion forum using the pseudonym "Kittysmom" may be none other than Barbie-Jo Williams, the wife of Alberta Alliance political researcher and communications guru, Jonathan Williams.

While the forum would not appear to be political in nature, Kittysmom does provide some insights into the current mindset of Alberta Alliance insiders in one of the discussion threads. The thread begins with Kittysmom describing a conversation she recently had with "Hubby" on April 23:

I think I need to start going straight from fridays to mondays Th4e last couple of weekends have been so bad.

Hubby and I have been trying to have a talk now for most of the week and finally managed to finish it Sunday Afternoon. and to make a long story short there is a good Possibility that he will be without a Job in a year ( the downside to a Job working for a politician is that Jobs change with the flux of Politics and Alberta is going through a change right now) So now we are looking at where we will be in a year.

Two posts later, a poster named "Defsmith" asks Kittysmom what her husband does, to which she answers:

Hubby Does Research and communications for the one and only elected Membee or the Legislative assembly For the Alberta Alliance Party. A Party that was Started as the Leader of the Conservitive Party (Party in Power)is a real Twit but he is retering this Autumn and then there will be a new Leader of the Conservitives and one person that is planning to run will Kill the Alberta Alliance Party And if he does decide to run it is almost a sure bet he will be elected. The MLA jon works for will likley cross the floor to the conservitives should that happen but the conservitive party has its own Research and communications People and while it is a small possibility that Jon might get a Job with them it is unlikely. (my emphasis added)

Fascinating.

More from Kittysmom in the same thread:

The Tories here are different that the ones over there and this guy that is thinking of running is a good leader he was in federal politics before and was really well liked it is just that it is not good for hubbys job if he wins.

I had a really hard time over in the UK never could figure out who to vote for didn't like any of them.

Followed by this snippet:

Hubby and the other person who works for the same MLA have both been looking at other Jobs and sending out applications. Hubby has even been looking back in the UK not sure that I am quite ready for another over seas move.

While we must always view posts on the internet with a degree of caution, the indicia of authenticity surrounding these posts are overwhelming:

1. The poster named Kittysmom provides personal details in her profile that matches the personal details of the real Williams family to a tee.
2. Kittysmom refers to "hubby" as "jon".
3. Kittysmom is obviously conversant with the Preston Manning situation, and accurately describes what many people believe his entry into the PC leadership race would mean to the Alberta Alliance.
4. Kittysmom accurately describes the number of employees working directly for Paul Hinman.
5. The disclosure from Kittysmom that "hubby" was looking for other work is corroborated by Jonathan Williams himself in this post on the Alliance Opposition Blog from April 5, where he states that he has started back with his column at his former paper in Cardston: "Well as of last week. I am a columnist for my former paper in Cardston again. It is nice to have a chance to air my views weekly once more."

Based on the foregoing, I am convinced that these posts are genuine, and they are from the real spouse of Jonathan Williams. Her disclosure that Paul Hinman "will likley cross the floor to the conservitives" in the event of a Preston Manning victory in the PC leadership race must be viewed as insider information that came from Jonathan Williams himself.

But where did Jonathan Williams get this information?

Has Paul Hinman already discussed his plans with the Alberta Alliance staff at the legislature, and does that explain why they are already seeking alternate employment? And if Paul Hinman does cross the floor to join Preston Manning, what does that mean for the AAP?

While floor crossing is a phenomenon that is not unknown in politics, has there ever been a case where a party leader has crossed the floor?

I don't know the answers to any of these questions, but I do know this: the mere fact that these questions are being asked is the worst possible news for the Alberta Alliance.

Selective research at the Alliance Opposition Blog

Jonathan Williams did a post on April 12 that creates a false impression. He was commenting on the Premiers' equalization conference in Montreal, and was generally critical of how the Conservative premiers seemed to have their "hands out wanting more." He cited this story from Yahoo News in support of his post. In the Yahoo News story, no comments appeared from Premier Ralph Klein, so Jonathan Williams jumped on the omission and blasted the Premier:

Now interestingly this report did not included a single point from our Premier. So are you telling me we had nothing to say?

Well, there are two possible reasons why no quote from Klein appeared in the story. The first reason would be that Klein was interviewed, and "had nothing to say". The second reason is that the reporter, Joan Bryden, may have decided not to include a quote from Klein. If Jonathan Williams would have done a simple check of Google News, he would have discovered that Klein had plenty to say on equalization, and his name appeared in many articles on equalization on April 11 and 12. Here are just a few examples:

"Provinces oil revenue defended by Klein", Calgary Sun, April 12

"On natural resources, we're very concerned," Alberta Premier Ralph Klein told a news conference along with his counterparts after meeting with them to discuss the issue.

"You might say we're opposed to the inclusion of resource revenue in the report."

"No consensus from premiers on how to fix fiscal imbalance", National Post, April 12

Alberta's Ralph Klein, meanwhile, had no problem boosting equalization payments, even though his province, along with Saskatchewan and Ontario, doesn't benefit. But, while Alberta is "a sharing province,'' Klein said he's opposed to the formula recommended by the panel for calculating equalization.

"Solving fiscal imbalance won't be easy: premiers", CTV News, April 12

The proposed change would boost equalization payments to $15.1 billion a year from the current $9.4 billion.

At present, payments are based on a five-province standard, which excludes oil-rich Alberta.

The suggestion raised the hackles of Premiers Ralph Klein of Alberta and Lorne Calvert of Saskatchewan.

Klein said resource revenues are very volatile, adding, "The only thing I can tell you is what goes up, must come down," referring to when price slumps in the 1980s and 1990s hurt Alberta's economy. ...

... Alberta Premier Ralph Klein, meanwhile, said he had no problem boosting equalization payments. But he added that he's opposed to the formula recommended by the panel for calculating equalization.

Klein has also rejected the recommendation to add the province's revenue to the calculation which would add $5.3 billion to the fund.

"Premiers divided over changes to payments", CBC News, April 12

Alberta Premier Ralph Klein, who chaired Tuesday's meeting in Montreal, is concerned the report recommends including resource revenue in the calculations. "It was included at one time, it was removed in 1982," says Klein. "We're very concerned and, you might say, we're opposed to the inclusion of resource revenue in the report. But that's a matter that needs to be discussed down the road. " Currently, equalization payments are based on a five-province standard, excluding oil-rich Alberta.

"Alberta's oil riches bubble to the surface", Globe and Mail, April 12

Alberta's vast mineral riches figured prominently in the talks after a blue-chip panel's report, unveiled yesterday, recommended that the formula for calculating equalization payments to less-prosperous regions include revenue from the province's booming oil and gas industry.

The panel, headed by Janice Stein of the University of Toronto and Robert Gagné of the University of Montreal, jumped into a debate that has simmered quietly for months in provincial capitals about Alberta's emergence as a provincial superpower. Last summer, Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty described it as "the elephant in the room" no one wanted to discuss.

Alberta Premier Ralph Klein made it clear that he does not support any move to include the province's resource revenues in the calculation for payments under the national equalization program -- a position that put him at odds with most recipients of the program.

"We're very concerned, and you might say we're opposed," he said at a news conference after the meeting.

Although Alberta might be reaping the benefits of high oil prices today, Mr. Klein said, the good times won't last forever.

"The only thing I can tell you is that what goes up must come down. So while the price is high now, it might come crashing down."

"No consensus from premiers on how to resolve fiscal imbalance", Macleans, April 11

Alberta's Ralph Klein, meanwhile, had no problem boosting equalization payments, even though his province, along with Saskatchewan and Ontario, doesn't benefit. But, while Alberta is "a sharing province," Klein said he's opposed to the formula recommended by the panel for calculating equalization. ...

... Currently, equalization payments are based on a five-province standard, excluding oil-rich Alberta.

Ottawa gives equalization to poorer provinces to enable them to provide services at taxation levels comparable to those of the rich provinces.

Klein likened the panel's proposal to the hated National Energy Program of the early 1980s, which siphoned off the province's oil wealth. He said it wouldn't be fair to include resource revenue in the equalization calculation since resource prices are so volatile.

"The only thing I can tell you is what goes up, must come down," he said, recalling the devastation wrought on Alberta's economy when oil prices crashed in the 1980s.

All of these stories were online prior to Jonathan Williams' post.

I am no defender of Ralph Klein, but he clearly voiced his opposition to the equalization report loudly and repeatedly. To suggest otherwise is false.

This incident brings to mind a famous quote from Hiram Johnson: "Truth is the first casualty of war". Based on the AAP's latest effort to "blame Ralph", truth is the first casualty in Alberta Alliance communications as well.