Has the Alberta Alliance "gone to ground"?

While cleaning up some old files, I came across a Paul Jackson column from April 1, 2007 that I haven't blogged about. In this column, Jackson talks about the impressive election performance of Mario Dumont's ADQ, and laments about the pitiful state of affairs in Alberta provincial politics:

Back to Alberta and our 36-year rule of the Progressive Conservatives.

Isn't it about time it's over?

Is it not time we got some fresh blood, and some new ideas at the Alberta Legislative Assembly?

Well, I don't think we are going to get any out of Premier Ed Stelmach and his team.

So what's the alternative?

Where is Alberta's Mario Dumont and ADQ?

It's certainly not Kevin Taft's zany Liberals -- every one of them gristle from ear-to-ear.

It's not Brian Mason's socialist New Democrats -- every one a bonehead.

What then, has happened to Hinman and the Alberta Alliance, which under former leader Randy Thorsteinson, hauled in 9% of the vote in the 2004 provincial election.

Where have they gone to ground. And why?

This is getting repetitive, so I won't comment further. All I can suggest to Jackson is that he take solace in the fact that about half of the Alberta Alliance have finally gotten the message, have given up on the AAP, and have moved on to The Wildrose Party.

Perhaps they will be Alberta's ADQ.

Source (click for screencap):

Paul Jackson says "feckless" Hinman to blame for by-election shellacking

Well faithful readers, much has happened in Alberta Alliance Land since my last post. I've got a lot of catching up to do. The following is on my list of things to do and cover:

• Craig Chandler's defection to the Progressive Conservatives. Mr. Chandler has recently announced that he will be seeking the nomination for the Tories in Calgary Egmont.
• Further discussion of the false statements being made by the Alberta Alliance regarding the size of Alberta's bureaucracy.
• The 2007 Alberta Alliance AGM, and what it means to the AAP.
• Summarize and comment on the disastrous results obtained by the Alberta Alliance during the June 12 Alberta by-elections.
• The 2006 finances of the AAP have now been made public. The river of red ink continues.
• A new right wing provincal party has been created to challenge the Alberta Alliance. The "Wildrose Party of Alberta" includes a number of former highly placed Alberta Alliance operatives and candidates.
• Some new polling numbers. Could the Alliance be on the rebound?
• Media coverage of the Alberta Alliance.

On this last point, I thought I'd start with Paul Jackson's June 19 Edmonton Sun column entitled "Tories lack vision". In the column, Jackson covers the by-election results from the perspective of the Alberta Liberals, and then says the following:

... the most telling point from the protest vote in Calgary Elbow - and to an extent in Drumheller-Stettler - is the once alternative right-wing vote is now dead.

In Calgary Elbow, even Green Party candidate George Read beat Alberta Alliance candidate Jane Greydanus. In Drumheller-Stettler, Alberta Alliance candidate Dave France came in fifth place. Astonishing. ...

... The Alliance, which in 2004 polled 9% of the vote across the province and seemed to be soaring, is now not even on life support.

For this I blame its leader, Paul Hinman, who is a decent, but feckless fellow, and who couldn't organize a trip to a cat house for a bunch of horny football players.

Instead, after a winning game, Paul would likely invite them to a church basement for soft drinks and cookies.

Personally, I'd choose the cat house, and, in my younger days, I actually visited a couple of these fine emporiums.

Bizarre.

I have never considered a politician's propensity to head for a whorehouse rather than a church to be an endearing factor in the minds of most voters. While I agree with most of Jackson's comments and criticisms of the AAP and Hinman to date, this column is over the top.

And if I consider it over the top, the Alberta Alliance communications staff must have been beside themselves, and must have quickly issued a strong public condemnation of this hit piece.

Right?

Well, there's nothing on the Alberta Alliance website about it. In fact, the website hasn't been updated in over a month. The results from the by-elections haven't even been posted.

I'm beginning to feel a bit sorry for Paul Hinman. It must be a real grind to continually be under attack when nobody in the party ever comes to your defense.

It creates the impression that the members, staff, and executive, have all but given up.

Source (click for screencap):

"What has happened to the Alberta Alliance?"

That is the question Paul Jackson asks in his latest column entitled "Look to the right for a solution". Towards the end of his column, Jackson cuts to the chase and provides his diagnosis as to what ails the AAP:

The Alliance, as you may recall, pulled in 9% of the vote under founding leader Randy Thorsteinson in the 2004 provincial election, but except for Hinman's recent headline-hitting revelation about MLAs double-dipping, has basically been nowhere to be seen.

In "Alberta Alliance poised to strike," (Jan. 2), I recounted my chat with Hinman and how he was super-confident the Alliance was on the move.

Now it appears the headline was off-base.

Pondering this, I believe one of the reasons is Hinman himself isn't focused.

OK, he's a very nice fellow, intelligent and accomplished in several fields, but try to interview him and you come away exhausted.

Rather than stick with one issue, he goes off on a mishmash of tangents.

While each is fascinating and would make a column in itself, it frustrates any attempt to pull together a cohesive column on one particular issue.

Hinman and his advisers need to map out a straight-shooting strategy and stick with it.

To sum up, the Alberta Alliance suffers from weak leadership, and incoherent communications. If a political pro like Paul Jackson can't sit through an interview with Hinman without longing for its conclusion, how on earth do you Alberta Alliance members expect a typical voter to stay focused on his scattered message?

I must give credit to Paul Jackson for telling it like it is. I think he wrote this column with the best interests of the AAP in mind. I view it as an open letter to the membership.

Unfortunately for Jackson, the moribund Alberta Alliance membership will probably fail to comprehend the message in his column.

Source (click for screencap):

Another email to Paul Hinman

Well, I'll try this again. The last time I sent Paul Hinman an email, he didn't bother responding. Maybe I'll have better luck this time.

Here is a copy of my email to Paul Hinman wherein I ask him for a source for his apparently false statements on public sector employment in Alberta:

Provincial government employees per capita

1 message

---

The Watcher (albertaalliancewatch)	Wed, Jan 3, 2007 at 12:12 PM
To: Paul Hinman
Mr. Hinman, I sent an email to you earlier today that contained a couple of minor errors. I noticed them after it was sent, but have now fixed them and modified that earlier email in a couple of places. Please disregard the earlier one. I am the blogger who owns and operates the site Alberta Alliance Watch. I put up a post yesterday responding to some quotes of yours contained in a column by Paul Jackson of Sun Media entitled "Alberta Alliance poised to strike". In that column, you are quoted as saying the following: "On a per capita basis, Alberta has more government employees than any other provincial government and even more than the federal government ..." Can you please provide a source for the factual assertion you make in this quote? I can't find one, and you will note from my post that Statistics Canada has published a table indicating that Alberta has the lowest number of government employees amongst the provincial and territorial governments. As such, either you are wrong, or Statistics Canada is wrong. Given that your assertion is the basis for your policy of reducing the overall size of the public service in Alberta, I think it important that this matter be cleared up. I look forward to hearing from you as to the source of your information. If you choose to respond, you can reply to this email, and I will then post your email on Alberta Alliance Watch, or, you can provide a moderated comment to the post entitled "Another email to Paul Hinman". While I do moderate comments to prevent personal attacks, I can assure you that any comment you provide will be published as is. Thank you for your attention to this matter. -- Regards, The Watcher

I have left moderated comments open on this post, in case Mr. Hinman chooses to respond here.

Update Jan. 3, 2007: The first email had a broken link and a couple of typos. I have changed it and updated this post. This one was sent at 12:12pm.

Update Jan. 29, 2007: A comment was received from "Anonymous" late yesterday. There is no indication that this is from the Alberta Alliance, although I suspect that it is. You will note that the commenter is suggesting the issue here is my own inability to understand what the Statistics Canada table is referring to. I suggest that the commenter is wrong. This matter will be continued in a new post. Comments are now closed.

Some contradictions from Paul Hinman

Calgary Sun columnist Paul Jackson seems to be back on the Alberta Alliance bandwagon. In today's column he describes Paul Hinman as "bubbling with ideas". Based on the number of quotes from Hinman contained in the column, it would appear that Paul Jackson recently interviewed the faltering Alberta Alliance leader.

That must have been quite an interview.

I wonder if anyone brought up the fact that Jackson has recently (i) called for Hinman to step down, and (ii) described the Alberta Alliance as "seemingly dead" under Hinman's leadership. Hehehe.

But I digress.

This column is noteworthy because it contains a couple of contradictions.

Firstly, Hinman makes the remarkable observation that Kevin Taft's Liberals may be the beneficiaries of Ed Stelmach's recent victory in the Alberta PC leadership race, and that the Alberta Alliance will then rise to power after "the shock is over":

He believes Stelmach's term will turn out to be only a "babysitting" government, and Liberal Leader Kevin Taft may be right in predicting his own party will make gains come the next election.

"The Liberals might go up the middle, but the Liberal gains will be short-lived. In the best-case scenario, we might see a minority government, but after that shock is over, Alberta voters will be looking for a solid, Conservative alternative."

That alternative, Hinman, 47, contends will be the Alliance.

This position contradicts the usual dogma Alberta Alliance members spurt, namely, that the Alliance will blow away the PC's in a sudden, massive, electoral sweep - much like the PC sweep of the Socreds back in 1971. Now, it would appear that Hinman believes there may be a Liberal government in between the PC dynasty and the Alliance coming to power.

Oh well.

Next, he indicates that he would hire more public servants:

To encourage more doctors, nurses, teachers, firefighters and other essential service workers to move to Alberta or stay in their jobs, he'd give them tax incentives, too.

But would then reduce the total size of the public service at the same time:

He'd reduce the size of the provincial public service.

Because, according to Hinman, there are simply too many public servants in Alberta:

"On a per capita basis, Alberta has more government employees than any other provincial government and even more than the federal government, yet the private sector is crying out for employees."

But, according to Statistics Canada, Alberta has the lowest number of public sector employees per capita in the country. From Table 1-3:

	Province	Public Sector Employees per 1,000 population
1.	Alberta	83
2.	Ontario	85
3.	B.C.	88
4.	Quebec	92
5.	N.B.	104
6.	Nfld.	109
7.	N.S.	117
8.	Manitoba	123
9.	P.E.I.	128
10.	Saskatchewan	137
11.	Yukon	168
12.	N.W.T.	183
13.	Nunavut	207

What is Hinman going on about? Based on this data, he couldn't be more wrong.

I assume there must be an explanation for this contradiction, but Paul Jackson wouldn't appear to have even noticed it.

Perhaps I should endeavor to email Paul Hinman and see if he'll provide it to me.

Source (click for full size):

Alberta Alliance "seemingly dead"

I'm sure that Alberta Alliance members would agree with me when I say that Calgary Sun columnist Paul Jackson has been the most prominent journalist in Alberta to consistently cover the Alberta Alliance in a positive way. He has in fact been pretty bullish regarding the prospects of the AAP for over a year now.

At the same time, Paul Jackson isn't one to mince words.

As such, his recent column published on August 22 entitled "Change in the Wind" is of particular significance. In that column, he discusses the pros and cons of various candidates in the PC leadership race. His central point seems to be that there is a strong desire in Alberta for change, and that Jim Dinning is simply too close to the present government to represent real change. He then drops the following bomb:

Believe me friends, there is a growing feeling in the province it's time the PCs were thrown out of office, but with the Alberta Alliance seemingly dead, and the Liberals being rightfully loathed, there seems no alternative but to re-elect what we have had since 1971.

This is getting painful to watch.

Back on April 9, Paul Jackson expressed the view that the Alliance should dump Hinman as leader.

We all know that didn't happen.

Now, he's basically saying the entire party is little more than a corpse, and who can blame him. The facts are stark:

1. all the polls since February of this year show the Alberta Alliance at half the support it obtained in the 2004 election;
2. high profile conservatives want nothing to do with the party;
3. all the merger talks have failed;
4. party members are fleeing in droves to support Ted Morton; and,
5. the one major journalist that took the Alliance seriously is now proclaiming the party dead.

Now, this may come as a surprise to you Alliance members, but, as an experienced political observer myself, I actually disagree with Paul Jackson. While there are plenty of facts to support his position, I think he is writing you off a bit too soon.

However, I don't want to hear any complaints coming from you AAP members about his coverage. You were all real happy with the fact that he was pumping the Alliance back in the summer of 2005, so don't whine and bitch about the fact that he's now covering your demise.

You see, journalists tend to have this nasty independence streak. They can't be controlled, and they will say what they please.

If you had any real political know-how, you'd understand that, and accept it. You wanted coverage - you got it - so now you have to learn to deal with it when it turns negative. Part of dealing with it means responding to it.

Based on what I've seen from the Alberta Alliance communications staff to date, I'm not convinced that will happen.

Alberta Alliance abandons Paul Hinman

It has been a week since the infamous Paul Jackson column entitled "Changing Tides" ran in last Sunday's Calgary Sun. For those of you that haven't read the column, all you really need to know is that in the column, Jackson called for Paul Hinman to "step aside" for Preston Manning. (I blogged about that column here.) After I read the Jackson column, I fully expected that the Alliance would respond with a strenuous rebuttal, given that Paul Hinman was elected leader less than 5 months ago. I anticipated a co-ordinated response involving letters to the Calgary Sun Editor from the executive of the party, as well as from party members. I expected those letters to state that the party had full confidence in the leadership of Paul Hinman, and that Paul Jackson was out to lunch for suggesting there was any need to replace him.

Given that I expected the party to rally around the leader, I must admit that I am somewhat flummoxed at what actually occurred. I have just gone through the six editions of the Calgary Sun that have been published since the "Changing Tides" column ran. Not a single letter supporting Paul Hinman was to be found. In fact, the only letter on the Jackson column that I could find was published today, in the April 15 edition. That letter was written by a fellow named Jeff Willerton, and it was supportive of Paul Jackson's views:

Paul Jackson is right. ("Changing tides," April 9.) The smart money is on Preston Manning to be our next premier, regardless of whether he leads the Tories or the Alliance. It's up to him whether he wants to lend his legitimately conservative credentials to an extraordinarily liberal Tory party (as did Stockwell Day for 10 years) or wants to finish it off by breathing life into a new organization. Either way, Preston will soon be our premier, should he choose to accept the mission. If he cares about this province, he needs to do everything in his power to keep it out of liberal hands. He's in the unique position of being the one man in Alberta who can do that.

Jeff Willerton

I then checked the Alberta Alliance blogs. There was no mention of the Jackson column on any of them. Interestingly, on Exposed Agenda, I found this post in which Alberta Alliance member Aizlynne expressed a yearning to have PC leadership candidate Ted Morton join up with the Alberta Alliance if and when he loses the leadership contest:

Ted Morton has more than just a vision for Alberta, he also has a policy and plan called the Alberta Agenda. Of course, Ted is a real policy wonk so we can expect to get exceptional policy reform from Ted. Only problem? Ted won't win - especially if you add Preston Manning into the mix. I hope his exit strategy includes considering coming over to the Alberta Alliance where he belongs! After all, the Alberta Alliance is the only party utilizing his Alberta Agenda as part of it's policy platform.

Is Aizlynne suggesting that Ted Morton would join the AAP under the leadership of Paul Hinman? I can't see Morton giving up a cabinet spot in the next government in order to sit behind Hinman in the nosebleed seats. This is clearly an expression of support for the idea that new leadership is required in the Alberta Alliance - in the form of Ted Morton.

Based on the foregoing, I am convinced that there is a strong undercurrent of dissatisfaction with Paul Hinman's leadership amongst the Alberta Alliance membership. He has literally been hung out to dry, and his supporters have abandoned him.

The only questions that remain are how deep this dissatisfaction is, and when will this dissatisfaction begin manifesting itself in an overt campaign to remove Hinman from the leadership.

As Ralph Klein recently stated: politics is a blood sport. Unfortunately for Paul Hinman, all of the signs suggest he is going to be getting some firsthand experience at just how bloody it is.

Paul Jackson endorses Preston Manning ... for Alberta Alliance leader

Calgary Sun pundit Paul Jackson wrote an interesting column today. He essentially called for Paul Hinman to stand aside as leader of the Alberta Alliance and make way for Preston Manning:

Yet let's throw a curve -- Preston Manning should surely be in the race, but not for the PC leadership.

He should make a pitch for the Alberta Alliance top job.

In 2004, the Alliance came from nowhere to win 9% of the vote, and had someone with a higher and more acceptable profile than Randy Thorsteinson been the leader it would have done even better.

Current leader Paul Hinman might easily be persuaded to step aside.

Right now, there are moves under way to have right-wing fringe parties such as Social Credit merge with the Alliance to have a solid and united Conservative alternative to the PCs.

With Manning at the Alliance's helm, the party would have all the legitimacy it needed and a star candidate.

Those now dissatisfied with the PCs would have a real home to go to.

Manning would surely be formidable -- and likely unbeatable. Remember, in just 10 years he built the Reform party from a kitchen-table discussion group to being the second largest political party in the country and the official Opposition in the House of Commons.

As in the past, Alberta could be in for a shattering change in its governing party.

Paul Jackson is one of the most widely read conservative columnists in Alberta. Unlike his colleagues, he actually covers the Alberta Alliance, and wrote two fawning columns about Marilyn Burns' leadership aspirations last year. I think it's fair to say that he has been more bullish on the Alberta Alliance than any other columnist in the province.

The fact that he is now calling for the head of Paul Hinman - who has only been leader for six months or so - is obviously bad news for the Alliance's only elected representative.

It also makes one wonder how deep the dissatisfaction is amongst the Alliance faithful over Paul Hinman's uninspiring leadership.