Alberta Alliance drowning in red ink

I have just finished reviewing the latest annual report from the Office of the Chief Electoral Officer for the Province of Alberta. The report deals with the 2004 Calendar Year, the 2004 Senate Election, and the 2004 General Election.

This official report shows that the Alberta Alliance ran up whopping campaign debts totalling $350,935, during the 2004 campaign!

How bad is that? Well, the next highest debt was run up by the NDP, at $95,063, followed by the Alberta Liberals, at $83,498.

The Progressive Conservatives - who Alliance members constantly blast as being fiscally irresponsible - incurred no campaign debts.

There are more interesting revelations regarding Alberta Alliance hypocrisy contained in the Chief Electoral Officer's report that I will blog about in the coming days.

Alberta Alliance "seemingly dead"

I'm sure that Alberta Alliance members would agree with me when I say that Calgary Sun columnist Paul Jackson has been the most prominent journalist in Alberta to consistently cover the Alberta Alliance in a positive way. He has in fact been pretty bullish regarding the prospects of the AAP for over a year now.

At the same time, Paul Jackson isn't one to mince words.

As such, his recent column published on August 22 entitled "Change in the Wind" is of particular significance. In that column, he discusses the pros and cons of various candidates in the PC leadership race. His central point seems to be that there is a strong desire in Alberta for change, and that Jim Dinning is simply too close to the present government to represent real change. He then drops the following bomb:

Believe me friends, there is a growing feeling in the province it's time the PCs were thrown out of office, but with the Alberta Alliance seemingly dead, and the Liberals being rightfully loathed, there seems no alternative but to re-elect what we have had since 1971.

This is getting painful to watch.

Back on April 9, Paul Jackson expressed the view that the Alliance should dump Hinman as leader.

We all know that didn't happen.

Now, he's basically saying the entire party is little more than a corpse, and who can blame him. The facts are stark:

1. all the polls since February of this year show the Alberta Alliance at half the support it obtained in the 2004 election;
2. high profile conservatives want nothing to do with the party;
3. all the merger talks have failed;
4. party members are fleeing in droves to support Ted Morton; and,
5. the one major journalist that took the Alliance seriously is now proclaiming the party dead.

Now, this may come as a surprise to you Alliance members, but, as an experienced political observer myself, I actually disagree with Paul Jackson. While there are plenty of facts to support his position, I think he is writing you off a bit too soon.

However, I don't want to hear any complaints coming from you AAP members about his coverage. You were all real happy with the fact that he was pumping the Alliance back in the summer of 2005, so don't whine and bitch about the fact that he's now covering your demise.

You see, journalists tend to have this nasty independence streak. They can't be controlled, and they will say what they please.

If you had any real political know-how, you'd understand that, and accept it. You wanted coverage - you got it - so now you have to learn to deal with it when it turns negative. Part of dealing with it means responding to it.

Based on what I've seen from the Alberta Alliance communications staff to date, I'm not convinced that will happen.

5000 Alberta Alliance members leave party???

More bad news for the Alberta Alliance and Paul Hinman yesterday.

According to this story in the Edmonton Journal, the Alliance is hemorrhaging supporters and members to the Ted Morton campaign:

Ted Morton's campaign, for example, has actively recruited Alliance members, as well as other disillusioned former party members.

"Most of those people have a history in the (PC) party, or have at least supported the party," said Sam Armstrong, a spokesman for Morton. "A good proportion of them are disillusioned members who left for good reason."

Armstrong said Alliance members have been particularly receptive to Morton's message.

The article then goes on to quote from political scientist David Taras:

Morton's strategy could be effective, said David Taras, a political scientist at the University of Calgary.

"If even, say, 5,000 former Alliance people sign up, you've already altered the race."

The only problem with this is that there is nowhere near 5,000 "former Alliance people" in the province. According to this Wikipedia article on the 2005 Alberta Alliance leadership race, there are just over 1,000 voting members in the AAP.

Now, I'm sure nobody in the Alliance will have the integrity to call David Taras up and clue him in regarding the real numbers the Alberta Alliance has in terms of active members. After all, the Alberta Alliance likes to falsely portray itself as a large movement on the ascendancy, so they will gladly take advantage of this mistake since it works in favour of the canards they are continually trying to foist on the Alberta electorate.

Oh, and don't worry. I won't clue Taras in either.

Let's just keep this one to ourselves.

Shhhhhh!

"...fringe parties such as the Alberta Alliance..."

This is funny.

Respected conservative political scientist Dr. Faron Ellis was interviewed by the Globe and Mail for an August 31 story on the 35 year Tory dynasty in Alberta. During the course of the interview, he made the following comment about the prospects for an Alberta Alliance government:

"We've only changed governments three times in 100 years and when we do, we looked not to the established opposition, but to a completely new party. There are no new parties ready to catch the next big wave," said Faron Ellis, a political scientist at Lethbridge Community College.

He said fringe parties such as the Alberta Alliance, which are to the right of the Conservatives, are not appealing to enough voters.

Fringe party?

BWAHAHAHAHA.

I have long maintained that respectable Alberta conservatives want nothing to do with the Alberta Alliance.

I guess we can now add Dr. Faron Ellis' name to that growing list.

The more things change ... the more they stay the same

Hello again.

I would like to offer an apology of sorts to those of you who have been faithfully checking Alberta Alliance Watch throughout the course of the summer. I have no real reason for failing to update you on the latest developments and gossip coming from the armpits of Alberta's body politic. The best I can offer in terms of an excuse is that - unlike most Alberta Alliance members - I have a life. Do you honestly think I am going to give up part of my summer blogging about something like the Alberta Alliance Party?

Get frikkin' real!

Besides, what is there to say or blog about? According to the latest public opinion polls, the Alberta Alliance is still trapped at a crummy 5% support amongst Albertans:

When respondents were asked which political party they would most likely vote for, 46 per cent said they would back a Dinning Conservative party, compared with 15 per cent for Kevin Taft's Liberals and eight per cent for Brian Mason's NDP.

The Green party and Paul Hinman's Alberta Alliance rounded out the mainstream parties with five per cent each.

That exactly parallels the level of support the Alliance was attracting back on April 4. You can read about that here.

The Alliance polled 9% during the last provincial election in 2004, and managed to win one seat. With a measly 5% support, the Alliance would be goners if an election were held today.

I think it's time for the Alberta Alliance to admit that its little experiment is a bust.

Albertans just don't care about the party.

Why don't all you Alliance members just move on and do something constructive with your time and efforts?

Craig Chandler agrees to interview

I am pleased to report that Craig Chandler has apparently agreed to an exclusive interview to be conducted by yours truly. (Check the comments on this post.)

Given that news on the Alberta Alliance has been a bit slow lately, this development gives me something to do. Thanks Craig!

Update:

The comments were discontinued when I migrated this blog to the new version of blogger on December 21, 2006. A commenter identifying himself as "craig b. chandler" did indicate that he "was all for the e-mail interview" in the comments to the post.

Paul Hinman to cross floor?

The evidence of malaise and despair in the ranks of the Alberta Alliance continues to mount. I have learned that a poster on a UK discussion forum using the pseudonym "Kittysmom" may be none other than Barbie-Jo Williams, the wife of Alberta Alliance political researcher and communications guru, Jonathan Williams.

While the forum would not appear to be political in nature, Kittysmom does provide some insights into the current mindset of Alberta Alliance insiders in one of the discussion threads. The thread begins with Kittysmom describing a conversation she recently had with "Hubby" on April 23:

I think I need to start going straight from fridays to mondays Th4e last couple of weekends have been so bad.

Hubby and I have been trying to have a talk now for most of the week and finally managed to finish it Sunday Afternoon. and to make a long story short there is a good Possibility that he will be without a Job in a year ( the downside to a Job working for a politician is that Jobs change with the flux of Politics and Alberta is going through a change right now) So now we are looking at where we will be in a year.

Two posts later, a poster named "Defsmith" asks Kittysmom what her husband does, to which she answers:

Hubby Does Research and communications for the one and only elected Membee or the Legislative assembly For the Alberta Alliance Party. A Party that was Started as the Leader of the Conservitive Party (Party in Power)is a real Twit but he is retering this Autumn and then there will be a new Leader of the Conservitives and one person that is planning to run will Kill the Alberta Alliance Party And if he does decide to run it is almost a sure bet he will be elected. The MLA jon works for will likley cross the floor to the conservitives should that happen but the conservitive party has its own Research and communications People and while it is a small possibility that Jon might get a Job with them it is unlikely. (my emphasis added)

Fascinating.

More from Kittysmom in the same thread:

The Tories here are different that the ones over there and this guy that is thinking of running is a good leader he was in federal politics before and was really well liked it is just that it is not good for hubbys job if he wins.

I had a really hard time over in the UK never could figure out who to vote for didn't like any of them.

Followed by this snippet:

Hubby and the other person who works for the same MLA have both been looking at other Jobs and sending out applications. Hubby has even been looking back in the UK not sure that I am quite ready for another over seas move.

While we must always view posts on the internet with a degree of caution, the indicia of authenticity surrounding these posts are overwhelming:

1. The poster named Kittysmom provides personal details in her profile that matches the personal details of the real Williams family to a tee.
2. Kittysmom refers to "hubby" as "jon".
3. Kittysmom is obviously conversant with the Preston Manning situation, and accurately describes what many people believe his entry into the PC leadership race would mean to the Alberta Alliance.
4. Kittysmom accurately describes the number of employees working directly for Paul Hinman.
5. The disclosure from Kittysmom that "hubby" was looking for other work is corroborated by Jonathan Williams himself in this post on the Alliance Opposition Blog from April 5, where he states that he has started back with his column at his former paper in Cardston: "Well as of last week. I am a columnist for my former paper in Cardston again. It is nice to have a chance to air my views weekly once more."

Based on the foregoing, I am convinced that these posts are genuine, and they are from the real spouse of Jonathan Williams. Her disclosure that Paul Hinman "will likley cross the floor to the conservitives" in the event of a Preston Manning victory in the PC leadership race must be viewed as insider information that came from Jonathan Williams himself.

But where did Jonathan Williams get this information?

Has Paul Hinman already discussed his plans with the Alberta Alliance staff at the legislature, and does that explain why they are already seeking alternate employment? And if Paul Hinman does cross the floor to join Preston Manning, what does that mean for the AAP?

While floor crossing is a phenomenon that is not unknown in politics, has there ever been a case where a party leader has crossed the floor?

I don't know the answers to any of these questions, but I do know this: the mere fact that these questions are being asked is the worst possible news for the Alberta Alliance.

Selective research at the Alliance Opposition Blog

Jonathan Williams did a post on April 12 that creates a false impression. He was commenting on the Premiers' equalization conference in Montreal, and was generally critical of how the Conservative premiers seemed to have their "hands out wanting more." He cited this story from Yahoo News in support of his post. In the Yahoo News story, no comments appeared from Premier Ralph Klein, so Jonathan Williams jumped on the omission and blasted the Premier:

Now interestingly this report did not included a single point from our Premier. So are you telling me we had nothing to say?

Well, there are two possible reasons why no quote from Klein appeared in the story. The first reason would be that Klein was interviewed, and "had nothing to say". The second reason is that the reporter, Joan Bryden, may have decided not to include a quote from Klein. If Jonathan Williams would have done a simple check of Google News, he would have discovered that Klein had plenty to say on equalization, and his name appeared in many articles on equalization on April 11 and 12. Here are just a few examples:

"Provinces oil revenue defended by Klein", Calgary Sun, April 12

"On natural resources, we're very concerned," Alberta Premier Ralph Klein told a news conference along with his counterparts after meeting with them to discuss the issue.

"You might say we're opposed to the inclusion of resource revenue in the report."

"No consensus from premiers on how to fix fiscal imbalance", National Post, April 12

Alberta's Ralph Klein, meanwhile, had no problem boosting equalization payments, even though his province, along with Saskatchewan and Ontario, doesn't benefit. But, while Alberta is "a sharing province,'' Klein said he's opposed to the formula recommended by the panel for calculating equalization.

"Solving fiscal imbalance won't be easy: premiers", CTV News, April 12

The proposed change would boost equalization payments to $15.1 billion a year from the current $9.4 billion.

At present, payments are based on a five-province standard, which excludes oil-rich Alberta.

The suggestion raised the hackles of Premiers Ralph Klein of Alberta and Lorne Calvert of Saskatchewan.

Klein said resource revenues are very volatile, adding, "The only thing I can tell you is what goes up, must come down," referring to when price slumps in the 1980s and 1990s hurt Alberta's economy. ...

... Alberta Premier Ralph Klein, meanwhile, said he had no problem boosting equalization payments. But he added that he's opposed to the formula recommended by the panel for calculating equalization.

Klein has also rejected the recommendation to add the province's revenue to the calculation which would add $5.3 billion to the fund.

"Premiers divided over changes to payments", CBC News, April 12

Alberta Premier Ralph Klein, who chaired Tuesday's meeting in Montreal, is concerned the report recommends including resource revenue in the calculations. "It was included at one time, it was removed in 1982," says Klein. "We're very concerned and, you might say, we're opposed to the inclusion of resource revenue in the report. But that's a matter that needs to be discussed down the road. " Currently, equalization payments are based on a five-province standard, excluding oil-rich Alberta.

"Alberta's oil riches bubble to the surface", Globe and Mail, April 12

Alberta's vast mineral riches figured prominently in the talks after a blue-chip panel's report, unveiled yesterday, recommended that the formula for calculating equalization payments to less-prosperous regions include revenue from the province's booming oil and gas industry.

The panel, headed by Janice Stein of the University of Toronto and Robert Gagné of the University of Montreal, jumped into a debate that has simmered quietly for months in provincial capitals about Alberta's emergence as a provincial superpower. Last summer, Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty described it as "the elephant in the room" no one wanted to discuss.

Alberta Premier Ralph Klein made it clear that he does not support any move to include the province's resource revenues in the calculation for payments under the national equalization program -- a position that put him at odds with most recipients of the program.

"We're very concerned, and you might say we're opposed," he said at a news conference after the meeting.

Although Alberta might be reaping the benefits of high oil prices today, Mr. Klein said, the good times won't last forever.

"The only thing I can tell you is that what goes up must come down. So while the price is high now, it might come crashing down."

"No consensus from premiers on how to resolve fiscal imbalance", Macleans, April 11

Alberta's Ralph Klein, meanwhile, had no problem boosting equalization payments, even though his province, along with Saskatchewan and Ontario, doesn't benefit. But, while Alberta is "a sharing province," Klein said he's opposed to the formula recommended by the panel for calculating equalization. ...

... Currently, equalization payments are based on a five-province standard, excluding oil-rich Alberta.

Ottawa gives equalization to poorer provinces to enable them to provide services at taxation levels comparable to those of the rich provinces.

Klein likened the panel's proposal to the hated National Energy Program of the early 1980s, which siphoned off the province's oil wealth. He said it wouldn't be fair to include resource revenue in the equalization calculation since resource prices are so volatile.

"The only thing I can tell you is what goes up, must come down," he said, recalling the devastation wrought on Alberta's economy when oil prices crashed in the 1980s.

All of these stories were online prior to Jonathan Williams' post.

I am no defender of Ralph Klein, but he clearly voiced his opposition to the equalization report loudly and repeatedly. To suggest otherwise is false.

This incident brings to mind a famous quote from Hiram Johnson: "Truth is the first casualty of war". Based on the AAP's latest effort to "blame Ralph", truth is the first casualty in Alberta Alliance communications as well.

Alberta Alliance abandons Paul Hinman

It has been a week since the infamous Paul Jackson column entitled "Changing Tides" ran in last Sunday's Calgary Sun. For those of you that haven't read the column, all you really need to know is that in the column, Jackson called for Paul Hinman to "step aside" for Preston Manning. (I blogged about that column here.) After I read the Jackson column, I fully expected that the Alliance would respond with a strenuous rebuttal, given that Paul Hinman was elected leader less than 5 months ago. I anticipated a co-ordinated response involving letters to the Calgary Sun Editor from the executive of the party, as well as from party members. I expected those letters to state that the party had full confidence in the leadership of Paul Hinman, and that Paul Jackson was out to lunch for suggesting there was any need to replace him.

Given that I expected the party to rally around the leader, I must admit that I am somewhat flummoxed at what actually occurred. I have just gone through the six editions of the Calgary Sun that have been published since the "Changing Tides" column ran. Not a single letter supporting Paul Hinman was to be found. In fact, the only letter on the Jackson column that I could find was published today, in the April 15 edition. That letter was written by a fellow named Jeff Willerton, and it was supportive of Paul Jackson's views:

Paul Jackson is right. ("Changing tides," April 9.) The smart money is on Preston Manning to be our next premier, regardless of whether he leads the Tories or the Alliance. It's up to him whether he wants to lend his legitimately conservative credentials to an extraordinarily liberal Tory party (as did Stockwell Day for 10 years) or wants to finish it off by breathing life into a new organization. Either way, Preston will soon be our premier, should he choose to accept the mission. If he cares about this province, he needs to do everything in his power to keep it out of liberal hands. He's in the unique position of being the one man in Alberta who can do that.

Jeff Willerton

I then checked the Alberta Alliance blogs. There was no mention of the Jackson column on any of them. Interestingly, on Exposed Agenda, I found this post in which Alberta Alliance member Aizlynne expressed a yearning to have PC leadership candidate Ted Morton join up with the Alberta Alliance if and when he loses the leadership contest:

Ted Morton has more than just a vision for Alberta, he also has a policy and plan called the Alberta Agenda. Of course, Ted is a real policy wonk so we can expect to get exceptional policy reform from Ted. Only problem? Ted won't win - especially if you add Preston Manning into the mix. I hope his exit strategy includes considering coming over to the Alberta Alliance where he belongs! After all, the Alberta Alliance is the only party utilizing his Alberta Agenda as part of it's policy platform.

Is Aizlynne suggesting that Ted Morton would join the AAP under the leadership of Paul Hinman? I can't see Morton giving up a cabinet spot in the next government in order to sit behind Hinman in the nosebleed seats. This is clearly an expression of support for the idea that new leadership is required in the Alberta Alliance - in the form of Ted Morton.

Based on the foregoing, I am convinced that there is a strong undercurrent of dissatisfaction with Paul Hinman's leadership amongst the Alberta Alliance membership. He has literally been hung out to dry, and his supporters have abandoned him.

The only questions that remain are how deep this dissatisfaction is, and when will this dissatisfaction begin manifesting itself in an overt campaign to remove Hinman from the leadership.

As Ralph Klein recently stated: politics is a blood sport. Unfortunately for Paul Hinman, all of the signs suggest he is going to be getting some firsthand experience at just how bloody it is.

Confidential tips by email

If you look at the sidebar on the right-hand side of this page, you'll notice that I have added an email link. This feature is provided as a service to you, the readers of Alberta Alliance Watch.

Information is the lifeblood of any media, and I hope some of you will provide me with information that you think is important for the public to know about. The following represents the policies I will administer with respect to any information you provide to me:

• The information will only be published if it pertains to the Alberta Alliance Party.
• Your complete confidentiality will be respected. No information that may serve to identify you will be published by me.
• Your email address will be kept completely confidential. It will not be shared with anybody.
• I will not publish anything that is defamatory.

I think that covers it, but if you have any recommendations on how this feature can be improved, I would be glad to hear from you.

Craig Chandler prophesies armageddon for the Alberta Alliance

In the April 8 edition of the Edmonton Journal, another article appeared on the Preston Manning issue. Amongst the many people interviewed for the article by Journal Staff Writer Mike Sadava was the executive director of the Progressive Group for Independent Business, Craig Chandler. The article is behind the subscriber wall, but I have managed to obtain a hard copy of it.

Craig Chandler is of course no stranger to Alberta Alliance members. He is the former campaign manager for David Crutcher, who finished third in the recent leadership race. He is also both a former candidate and campaign manager for the Reform Party of Canada. Chandler commented on what Manning's candidacy would mean to evangelical Christians, and the Alberta Alliance:

Craig Chandler, executive director of the Calgary-based Progressive Group for Independent Business who ran Manning's 1993 campaign in Ontario, said evangelical Christians like himself and groups like Alberta Pro Life will support him en masse.

"I think you'll see the entire social conservative movement in Alberta if Preston runs, and they'll deliver the vote," Chandler said. "They'll roll up their sleeves and they'll do the work ... If he wants this thing, it's his." ...

... Chandler predicted the Alberta Alliance party will die if Manning goes into the premier's office, because the people who support the provincial party will move their support to Manning.

Paul Hinman, the sole Alliance MLA, insisted there would still be a need for the Alliance party. But he was disappointed that Manning could seek the Tory leadership. They came close to begging him to run for the Alliance but he turned down the invitation.

So, according to Chandler, evangelical Christians will flock to Manning. That will have two consequences: (i) it will assure a Manning victory in the PC leadership contest, and (ii) it will result in a catastrophic collapse in Alliance support. If Chandler is correct, this proves that the Alberta Alliance voter base is comprised almost entirely of evangelical Christians.

The other noteworthy disclosure in this article is the fact that a group of Alberta Alliance members - including Hinman himself apparently - "came close to begging" Manning to run for the Alliance, and that Manning turned them down. This cursory rejection definitively shows that Preston Manning considers the Alberta Alliance to be little more than a fringe party, completely unworthy of support, and a total waste of time.

Based on the latest media coverage, it is now a question of when, not if, Manning will throw his hat into the PC leadership race. If Manning wins, the next election will feature Paul Hinman running against a party lead by the very person he was pleading with to lead the Alliance. That fact alone will allow Manning to make a total mockery out of the AAP.

It may be time for you Alberta Alliance members to make your political amends, and seek forgiveness - because according to Craig Chandler, and a lot of other credible people, your political Rapture will soon be at hand.

Paul Jackson endorses Preston Manning ... for Alberta Alliance leader

Calgary Sun pundit Paul Jackson wrote an interesting column today. He essentially called for Paul Hinman to stand aside as leader of the Alberta Alliance and make way for Preston Manning:

Yet let's throw a curve -- Preston Manning should surely be in the race, but not for the PC leadership.

He should make a pitch for the Alberta Alliance top job.

In 2004, the Alliance came from nowhere to win 9% of the vote, and had someone with a higher and more acceptable profile than Randy Thorsteinson been the leader it would have done even better.

Current leader Paul Hinman might easily be persuaded to step aside.

Right now, there are moves under way to have right-wing fringe parties such as Social Credit merge with the Alliance to have a solid and united Conservative alternative to the PCs.

With Manning at the Alliance's helm, the party would have all the legitimacy it needed and a star candidate.

Those now dissatisfied with the PCs would have a real home to go to.

Manning would surely be formidable -- and likely unbeatable. Remember, in just 10 years he built the Reform party from a kitchen-table discussion group to being the second largest political party in the country and the official Opposition in the House of Commons.

As in the past, Alberta could be in for a shattering change in its governing party.

Paul Jackson is one of the most widely read conservative columnists in Alberta. Unlike his colleagues, he actually covers the Alberta Alliance, and wrote two fawning columns about Marilyn Burns' leadership aspirations last year. I think it's fair to say that he has been more bullish on the Alberta Alliance than any other columnist in the province.

The fact that he is now calling for the head of Paul Hinman - who has only been leader for six months or so - is obviously bad news for the Alliance's only elected representative.

It also makes one wonder how deep the dissatisfaction is amongst the Alliance faithful over Paul Hinman's uninspiring leadership.